Results from 2016's
New Hampshire Senate Election
Incumbent
Senator Jeanne Shaheen
Last Elected: 2014, a Republican wave year/midterm
First Elected: 2008, a Democratic Presidential Victory
Age: 72
Favorability: +20 in an R+2% State (EXCELLENT)
New Hampshire's first Democratic reelection in decades, Senator Jeanne Shaheen won her seat in 2014 with +3.2% of the vote against former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. She has made foreign policy and fiscal policy her priorities while serving in the Senate, and has a +20 favorability rating despite representing a CPR-rated 'Lean Republican' state.
FiveThirtyEight expects her to run ahead of the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2020, and only expects her to falter if President Trump carries NH by a large margin. She has proven to be an adept fundraiser, winning reelection statewide twice (first for Governor, second for Senate), and is few attuned to the political sentiment of her state.
Likely Opponent
Corey Lewandowski
Most famous for being the 2016 Trump Campaign's first manager, Lewandowski was fired but remains in the good graces of his former boss. He has become a staple on the cable news circuit, often defending the actions of the Administration from critics.
Lewandowski would enter the Republican primary as a favorite - his support from Washington and the weakness of his competitors would make him the instant frontrunner. His past aggressive actions towards reporters (the reason he was fired from the Trump Campaign in the first place), and his history as a lobbyist in D.C. is already being used by the Democrats to smear him in the lead-up to his entry into the race.
Shaheen remains the favorite to win in 2020 - despite Trump's help, Lewandowski has many failings that will make it easier for the popular two-term Senator and former Governor to get reelected.
State Profile
New Hampshire is an outlier from the rest of New England. It only recently grew more Democratic, with the election of a completely blue congressional delegation from mostly rural voters.
The state has few major population centers, with its media market derived from neighboring Boston. Despite this, the state is affluent, and its median income is 36% higher than the national average.
The population is mostly homogenous, being 91% white. Education and political literacy are high, and NH had the 3rd highest statewide voter turnout in 2016. The state is known for being financially conservative but socially liberal. New Hampshire voters are very pleased with the status quo, with no major corruption scandals in their history and their high socio-economic status limiting desire for change.
NH Resources
Holly Ramer
Named by Politico as a 'go-to' reference for New Hampshire politics, Ramer is a NH-based Associated Press political reporter.
Michael Biundo
New Hampshire-based Republican operative that worked for the Trump Campaign in 2016.
Trent Spiner
Politico remarked that he "knows everyone there is to know" in New Hampshire, and was the former editor for the NH Union Leader.
Pamela Walsh
Chief of Staff to Senator Maggie Hassan and New Hampshire-based Democratic political operative.
Current Polls
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen
Corey Lewandowski
Race Summary
Corey Lewandowski has several advantages going into the Senate race in New Hampshire, centered around his relationship with the President. He has a national profile and will certainly be well-funded.
His campaign will focus on nationalizing the race, which won't be a bad strategy in a race where Republicans are considered the underdogs and the partisan lean of the state favors the Right. His best chance of winning depends on pro-Trump voters thinking of him as a 'down-ballot' version of Trump.
Sen. Shaheen's team will want to focus on Lewandowski's past as a lobbyist, his tendencies to make gaffes on the campaign trail, and making the election more about Lewandowski as an individual. This will likely be a winning strategy, as it will be much harder to nationalize a race in a small media market like New Hampshire, where elections are decided based on personal appeal and not nationwide factors.