Understanding the makeup of each of the primary contenders is the main way to comprehend how they're doing at this early stage. Opinion polling now reflects name recognition more than anything. However, just because opinion polling doesn't accurately reflect the realities doesn't mean that other features don't. There is no potential scenario where Rep. Tim Ryan, whose campaign is flagging and hasn't qualified for the third debate, becomes the Presidential nominee. Here's my take on the strengths and weaknesses of each of the 2020 Democratic Candidates for President.

Vice President Joe Biden [30% Chance of Being the Nominee]

Joe Biden’s campaign has only recently put in the massive investment in the early stage contests in Iowa and South Carolina that each of his rivals have put forth. Despite a massive first-day fundraising that outpaced each of the other candidates, Biden’s fundraising has tapered off since. As of August 2019, his campaign has raised the third-highest amount of money with $20 million. He rarely makes campaign appearances, avoiding big forums on issues like gun control or minority advocacy, and has done the fewest public events in Iowa and New Hampshire of anyone else in the race. He has no need to do so, of course, given his standing in the race and high name ID. His campaign is focusing on high-dollar campaign fundraisers and post-primary strategy instead of the early caucuses.

The campaign itself is filled with Obama-era insiders. His campaign manager worked on both Clinton’s 2016 campaign and Obama’s campaigns. His team is mostly white males, from his state directors in Iowa and New Hampshire to his campaign manager. His main base of appeal is mostly towards older, white voters in the Midwest and union bosses with whom he has decades of relationships fostered.

Biden’s biggest weakness? His inability to grow from his own actions and gaffes on the campaign trail. His mistakes in speeches in Iowa have prompted his campaign to try and restrict his public appearances, prompted scathing criticism from David Axelrod, Obama’s 2008 and 2012 chief strategist. If he can’t campaign properly, he “shouldn’t be running for President.” His inability to attract a lot of endorsements from national elected officials is also a poor sign for Biden. Many insiders are skeptical of his ability to deliver, and the fact that Obama himself hasn’t endorsed him has prompted the rest of the field to wait.

Senator Elizabeth Warren [20% Chance of Being the Nominee]

Elizabeth Warren’s campaign is highly disciplined and notable for its decisiveness. The major composition and strategy of the organization itself has not changed since its inception in December 2018, weathering scandals and flagging expectations without breaking its stride. The campaign was criticized early on for its expenses - dropping multiple millions on early hires in Iowa and New Hampshire and creating a massive push that dwarfed the efforts of all other candidates. This negative focus became even more pronounced as her early fundraising was underwhelming and additional candidates entered the race.

Her nuanced, footnoted, and extensive policy releases became the cornerstone of her campaign. Starting in April and extending to today, Warren’s campaign has released a veritable treasure trove of progressive policies - some seemed specifically designed to counter criticism that liberal policies are too vague and can’t be substantiated. Her slogan, “Warren has a plan for that,” quickly caught fire and her campaign began to build up momentum. Her two performances in the Summer debates reinforced her reputation as a masterful debater, and most pundits assigned her as the overall winner. As of August 2019, she is ranked second-place in the primary horserace, despite her name recognition being much lower than Biden or Sanders.

Warren’s biggest weakness? The ‘Native American DNA Test’ debacle that branded her ‘Pocahontas’ by Donald Trump and her seeming inability to move past that early error. She has recently released a 9,000 word proposal advocating for massive reforms for how the federal government treats Native Americans and was the guest of honor at a major Native advocacy event after being endorsed by Rep. Deb Haaland of New Mexico, one of the first two Native American women elected to Congress.

Senator Bernie Sanders [15% Chance of Being the Nominee]

Sanders is roughly tied for second with Warren in most of the national and local polls. His campaign began with a massive fundraising push - emphasizing his grassroots appeal, and the New York Times did a spectacular data visualization piece demonstrating that his major donors are from nearly every state in the country. He possesses his massive donor and volunteer list from his 2016 campaign and his name recognition is on par with Biden’s. His favorability ratings are excellent and he continues to lead the field in money raised at nearly $26 million. Voters are comfortable with him and his positions, and rate him highly as electable (save the use of socialism as an attack term).

The majority of young voters form Sanders’ base. He’s very popular in New Hampshire (only slightly behind Biden and nearly tied with Warren in a late July poll), and continues to grow his name ID with black and latino voters through outreach attempts and an emphasis on diversity in his campaign staff. He has a massive amount of niche support among Democratic voters who hadn’t voted in previous elections, and has a core constituency of voters who are ‘Bernie or Bust,’ and won’t vote for any candidate if Bernie isn’t the nominee.

Sanders’ biggest weakness? His polling is miserable for someone with his name recognition and his team seemed to mistake how much of his 2016 support was simply a protest vote against Clinton. He’s polling worse in Iowa than he is nationally - indicating that most of his current support is due to name recognition and not because he’s actually popular. Iowa matters, and his strong performance there in 2016 was why he was such a powerful rival to Clinton, not because he was popular nationally. He’s failing to win the support of grassroots groups as they flock to Warren, and his fundraising is actually underwhelming when compared to his best quarters in 2015 and 2016. It’s still early, but these are all massive warning signs when early polling isn’t really reliable. He also tops the list of people that Democrats don’t want to see win in 2020, in addition to the enmity the national party has for him.

Senator Kamala Harris [15% Chance of Being the Nominee]

Kamala Harris’s campaign began with much fanfare. She had a perfectly timed, coordinated, and media-driven announcement that prompted many pundits to declare her the presumptive nominee before Biden and Sanders entered the race and Warren’s campaign was stumbling. However, her campaign flagged almost immediately after those with high name ID entered the race and only briefly recovered momentum during the interim period between the two Summer 2019 debates where she eviscerated Biden for his past policies on primetime television.

In style and substance, Harris seems like a more blatantly progressive Obama. Her outreach attempts focus on coalition building - bringing together moderates skeptical of far left policies and more moderate black and latino voters while emphasizing identity politics and the need for aggressive government reform in the Trump-era. She’s open to high dollar fundraisers and has raised the 5th highest amount of money in the 2020 primaries, with nearly $12 million.

For much of 2019, it seemed like Harris was ignoring both Iowa and New Hampshire in favor of South Carolina, despite being reported by Iowans that she’s the candidate voters “most want to like.” She’s recently tried to expand her Iowa operation, relying on funds derived from her June debate performance and making essential hires to promote her candidacy. Harris’ biggest weakness are concerns about her career as a federal prosecutor in the Black Lives Matter era. She has been underperforming with her expected core constituency - black voters - and currently faces extreme competition in two key areas with two powerful rivals: Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. With Biden taking the majority of black voters at this early stage because he was Obama’s Vice President, and Warren attracting many educated liberal white voters in rural areas, she is still struggling to form a solid base of support that can even rival Sanders.

Mayor Pete Buttigeig [10% Chance of Being the Nominee]

Pete Buttigeig’s main asset as a campaigner is his ability to use a national figure - Vice President Mike Pence - as a foil. He is a religious, highly educated, gay, military veteran against a VP to a draft-dodger, costal heretic that delights in flirting with racist rhetoric. They’re both from the same state and represent drastically different worldviews. His appeal is mainly geared towards Iowa - as a fellow midwesterner, a win in Iowa (or even a prominent showing), has the potential to redefine predictions for the 2020 race.

He’s tracked a different path to the nomination than Sanders, Biden, and Warren - advocating for unapologetically liberal policies while maintaining a moderate veneer and appealing to Costal elites. He’s been the headliner at several Silicon Valley fundraisers and financial donors have openly supported his candidacy. He’s posted the second highest fundraising numbers at $25 million and used it to rapidly expand his operation. Out of all the 2020 candidates, Buttigeig has the highest potential to expand his name ID through his current high ceiling of support and influx of cash.

Buttigeig’s biggest weakness? His awful name recognition. Despite consistently being rated one of the most relatable, perfectly moderate, and well-spoken 2020 candidates, his favorability ratings are extremely poor due to his low voter ID threshold. He’s never won a statewide victory, and represents a very small college town. Each of his key 2020 rivals have won massive statewide races and possess national profiles. Many pundits make note of his poor ratings among black voters, which may be because of his mishandling of racial politics in his city of South Bend, but are more likely simply because black voters don’t know who he is.

Resources:

• Politico's 2020 Money Tracker
• FiveThirtyEight's Midsummer Tiers
• Ballotpedia's List of Key Staffers