Choosing a Vice President is one of the most helpful insights into what a Presidential candidate views as their major weakness. In 2000, Bush was a political newcomer lacking extensive ties with the establishment - Dick Cheney embodied the establishment. In 2004, John Kerry was viewed as an out-of-touch liberal elder statesman from Massachusetts, so he picked a down-to-earth, young Senator from North Carolina as his running mate. In 2008, the Obama Campaign was worried that he might be seen as too radical, so they went with the most non-offensive selection they could find: tenured Senator Joe Biden. For all of their failings, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska and Rep. Paul Ryan represented fresh, new faces for the Republican Party and neatly contrasted with John McCain and Mitt Romney. God only knows what Secretary Clinton's campaign was thinking in 2016 with Sen. Tim Kaine - perhaps something similar to what the Obama campaign considered, but it clearly wasn't the right move. Trump didn't have too many options coming his way towards the end of the 2016 Election, but Gov. Mike Pence - a religious Governor from the heartland, paired well with a flamboyant, vice-prone New Yorker. Vice Presidents can rectify any electoral failings in a presidential campaign, but they often have influence far beyond what the media paints them as.

Here are the major factors at play in a VP selection (a summary from FiveThirtyEight's Guide to Veep Selection):

• Geography: Candidates choose their VP's from large, Electorally beneficial states on the opposite end of the country from their base.
• Ideology: Candidates choose VP's that increase their appeal to the entire party. A more moderate candidate chooses a liberal VP. A more liberal candidate will choose a moderate.
• Race: Especially for the Democratic Party, which is much more of a big tent than the Republicans, having a diverse ticket is increasingly becoming the norm.
• Gender: Even though there isn't a lot of statistical evidence to show that having a woman on the ticket improves traction with female voters, that might change in the #MeToo era.
• Religion: Not really a big deal for Democrats, essential for Republicans without major appeal to evangelicals and Baptists.
• Resume: Perhaps the most important category in this list, governing experience is the single best predictor of someone's eligibility for Vice President. If the running candidate is seen as experienced, then this might be less of a factor, but if they're a newbie, having someone with the connections to get maximum party support is essential.

That brings us to the candidates. It's happily just a series of binary classifications on the twenty or so candidates that I'm drawing from. I have a list of rising stars in the party that have more than 5+ years of experience (i.e. no Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or the Squad members) and have generated interest on several news sites already, in addition to the field of Primary candidates polling below 2% in the primaries.

For Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): Warren's difficult, mostly because there's only been one other woman on the top of a party ticket to use as an example. If she wins the nomination, she'll likely choose someone who is 1) male, 2) moderate, 3) of color, 4) and from a large state to balance out her own characteristics. The obvious option would be Secretary Castro of Texas. He's polling at below 2% in the primary, doesn't face good electoral prospects back home, and was even already vetted as a Vice Presidential candidate for Clinton. Arguably, he might have had the potential to compensate for Clinton's unpopularity with some minority voters. Castro doesn't have a long resume or isn't that ideologically far from Warren, but he has other characteristics that make him appealing. I might be wrong - Warren's enough of a firebrand and risk taker that she might buck the system for what she feels is right. She's not Clinton, and she's probably learned a lesson or two from 2016. If she feels comfortable enough with another woman on the ticket, she might go with a prominent woman of color from the House or the South.

For Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): Biden's easier, because he fits in the mold of all the other candidates in the past and he's been pretty open about who he envisions as his VP (Hi Kamala Harris). With their newfound rivalry from the debate stage, I think it would be nearly impossible for him to pick her now - nor do I think she'd be into the idea. She's been pretty hostile to it already, and can camp out in the California Senate seat she has until 2022. He's probably already burned bridges with Stacey Abrams because of his gaffe at the beginning of his campaign where his team reportedly reached out to her to see if they could head off the rest of the field early. Going forward, he has a couple other options. He's publicly said he's interested in a woman as his running mate. He's got enough of a lead with black voters that he might not need a black VP, but there are other areas he fares poorly in. I'm thinking of Nevada primarily. It looks like Nevada will be Warren territory in the early primaries - meaning Biden is suffering with Latinx voters. The best way to fix this? Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada. She's a political blank slate - not too moderate, nor too progressive. She already has a leadership position in the Senate despite being in her first term. She represents a mild swing state in Nevada, and is at the opposite end of the country from the Delaware/Pennsylvania block Biden's trying to emulate. Other options could very well be Stacey Abrams (who would be out of office for a full four years until the GA Governor's race opens again) or Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois. She's young, Asian American, from the heartland, a veteran, and lost both of her legs in the Iraq War. She's been mentioned as a potential running mate and even eventual Presidential contender by many. But, she just had a kid, which would make her unlikely to pursue a high-profile presidential race.

For Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT): Bernie's the hardest to nail down, simply because he's such a loose cannon. He'd likely buck the idea of choosing a moderate and just go with his gut (i.e. he's going to pick someone who's already in his inner circle). What would be a fascinating pick for Bernie would be San Juan Mayor Carmen Cruz of Puerto Rico. She's a member of his campaign advisors, young-ish, and represents a lot of what he doesn't. She's also extremely far left, which he might find appealing. The prospect of a potential Puerto Rican presidential ticket candidate is extremely interesting, but she's also running in the 2020 election for Governor right now. Other options from Bernie's inner circle would be Rep. Ro Khanna of California or one of his rivals who endorsed him in 2016 likeRep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii. None of this really follows the statistics that I mentioned above, but Bernie's an unconventional candidate and really reminds me of the crony-politics I've witnessed in Latin American populists. He won't want to temper his campaign by bringing in a moderate, he'll want someone who's just as passionate as he is.

For Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA): Harris is also a tough one, despite her plethora of options. She has a foot in almost every door in the Democratic Primary, so needing a more moderate or liberal running mate isn't an issue. She's from California, so I see her picking a young-ish white male from the heartland as her running mate. The most obvious choice is Beto O'Rourke of Texas. He rectifies a lot of her issues, and the ideology of the campaign would be vaguely leftist-center. Pete Buttigeig could also be an option, but the whole ticket would be very inexperienced. Harris has a bit of a claim to governance, she's been in politics for nearly two decades now, but only in a major statewide position for eight. It would violate a lot of the rules that we've put in place to determine her running mate. In all honesty, I see her picking a more established name with a better track record than one of her rivals. Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio is the best choice I think. He's a populist with a track record of winning red states, he's white, male, and would appeal to everyone that Harris doesn't. At the same time, Brown's already been discussed as a potential running mate and avoided because of one major reason: having him on the ticket would probably hand the Republicans the Senate for the next six years. He just won reelection easily in Ohio in 2018, despite the state's increasingly red hue in recent years - in the same year Ohio elected a Republican Governor. If he becomes VP, Brown's seat will go to the Republicans until a special election is held in 2022, where it will likely be won by a Republican. The Democrats can't really afford to lose any of their swing state votes - especially Brown, who's managed to hang on and still be super liberal. That leaves Harris in a continued bind - who would she pick? Luckily, she's in the inverse situation that white male candidates like the B's are facing. The sky's the limit when it comes to trying to find a moderate white male candidate in America.

For Mayor Pete Buttigeig (D-IN): Finally, Buttigeig is an intriguing case study. He's like Harris in a lot of ways - he's the inverse of the majority of the field (which is probably the source of his popularity) and gay. That's significant, but with his history of racial injustice during his stint as South Bend's mayor, I can't see him picking anyone besides a black running mate from the coasts. Like Harris, he has a foot in every lane - so it doesn't really matter what ideology he chooses - but the single most important feature for him is experience. He needs someone to balance out the worries that he's too inexperienced to be president. So who's an experienced, black legislator or executive? He honestly doesn't have a lot of options. We have a real problem with nominating black individuals to prominent statewide positions in the country - there are only two black Democratic Senators (and both are running for President), and both are relatively new. Booker or Harris could be the ideal pairing for him, but Harris's history with criminal justice might turn a lot of black voters off (especially if Buttigeig becomes the nominee, because that means black voters liked a gay white man from Indiana over the first black female nominee for President). Booker is more of a possibility, but he's also disliked by a lot of the black electorate which is Buttigeig's biggest problem area. An interesting idea would be Shadow Senator Jesse Jackson of Washington D.C., but he's been a fringe actor in national politics for ages. Other options would be one of the leaders of the Congressional Black Caucus in the House. Someone like Chair Rep. Karen Bass of California or Yvette Clarke, or Cedric Richmond of Louisiana. I have a feeling that Buttigeig would try and appeal to one of those powerful lawmakers to legitimize his campaign.

I left off quite a few people here - mostly white, straight men from battlegrounds because they don't fit the profile. Gov. Steve Bullock, Sen. Michael Bennett, or Gov. John Hickenlooper all fit that 'bland-Tim-Kaine-profile' but I don't think candidates are interested in that this time around. A couple of other intriguing options would be Alabama Senator Doug Jones - but that would mean giving up the Alabama Senate Seat when it looks like he actually might win again - Governor Gavin Newsom of California - he's been pretty blatant about his presidential ambitions - and Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, the only LGBT Senator in history. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico could also be an intriguing option, but he's running for the open Senate seat in 2020. I also left off a lot of prominent women of color like Rep. Deb Haaland of New Mexico or Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts because they're really, really new. Give them a few years in office and they'll be ideal Presidential candidates, let alone Vice President. Experience is still the number one indicator of who people will choose as VP.

I'd be interested to know if I missed anybody, so shoot me an email or leave a comment and I'll look into it!