This is the last chance for many of the Democratic candidates polling at 1% to really make an impact to qualify for the September debates. They couldn't have asked for a better hand. All the moderates were given the perfect targets: progressive frontrunners Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders the first night. All the progressives were given the moderate frontrunners Joe Biden and Kamala Harris the second. You can bet that they're going to be in attack mode.

Harris is probably in the worst position this time around - which would make an impressive performance even more extraordinary if she manages to pull it off. She just released her first, real proposal for healthcare - and has already been pummeled by the left and right. Biden will be much more prepared for a race-based onslaught on Wednesday, and Kamala won't have that lane to herself with all of the candidates of color unfortunately grouped together on the same night. She won't even be able to benefit from a potential tag team support like Warren and Sanders will the first night, she's spent so much time trying to define a lane for herself that she'll be alone. Wednesday will be the night that we might see Harris fall and Booker or Castro finally rise. Or Kamala will prove beyond a doubt that she's the perfect person to take on Trump by outflanking all her rivals and playing a bad hand masterfully. It remains to be seen.

But by continuing to separate Warren and Harris in the only real events that matter this far ahead of the Iowa primaries, the media have all but ensured one, or both of their rise. Warren and Harris essentially have the same voters - surprising many and overturning the attempted media spin that Warren and Sanders are in the same lane. Analytics venues like FiveThirtyEight have proven that most Biden supporters consider Bernie their second choice, and vice versa. The same goes for Warren and Harris, for whatever odd reason (neither pairing has remotely similar policies). By keeping the pairs separate, the media has prevented those voters from contrasting the candidates that the data says they want to contrast and almost forcing the media narrative of Biden vs Harris and Warren vs Bernie down our throats. Because there's only a limited number of events like these and their actual tangible effect on public perception, it ensures that the eventual frontrunner matchup will be one of those later two pairs, instead of the one that voters actually want.

I believe the final matchup in September and beyond will be Warren vs Biden. Sanders really overestimated how much of his 2016 support was really just a protest vote against Clinton, and for someone with nearly 100% name recognition he's polling horribly. Party activists have continually placed him at the top of lists of who they don't want to see as the nominee, he has a horrible relationship with the media (meaning he'll get less favorable coverage and continue to be framed as the 'annoying candidate'), he often goes off script and does his own thing in contrast to what his policy directors tell him, and his fundraising has been lackluster in comparison to the rest of the field. Like I mentioned above, unless Kamala really does a great job in Wednesday's debate, I think she'll be the top target instead of Biden. Her polling bump's already gone down since the June debates and she hasn't managed to recreate the durable rise that Warren's perfected.

Which brings us back to the first premise - Warren's going to shine again in tomorrow's debate. The last thing the moderates want is to be made to look like an idiot on stage - precisely why Warren dominated the first time around. Nobody wanted to give her room to prove them wrong. Just see poor Tim Ryan in the last debate - he was annihilated by Tulsi Gabbard and got mocked all over the internet. You don't attack someone on their own turf - and Warren's the policy master on everything. All she wants is someone to give her a platform to prove them wrong - that's her whole brand. But it's not Bernie's. Bernie thrived off his energy, his massive promises, and incomplete policies designed to spark inspiration and hope instead of confidence. He's the perfect target for these wonky moderates. Sure, he'll have Warren helping him - everytime he stumbles will be more ways for her to get speaking time in - but while he's fending off personal attacks, Warren's help is going to come off as the teacher helping the clumsy student. He's stuck between a rock and a hard place and it'd be shocking if he can extract himself from it.

I predict that Warren's going to come out of these debates with a heavy lead over all of the other candidates. She's currently polling at 15% nationwide (tie w/ Sanders for 2nd), 15% in Iowa (tie w/ Harris for 2nd), and 18% in New Hampshire (2nd). I don't think these debates will push her past Biden - yet - but I think it will solidify her in second place only a few points behind him. From readings, post debate bumps seem to have diminishing returns the higher polling a candidate is (i.e. Harris pre-June debates was polling around 8%, Harris doubled her share and is currently polling between 12-16%, while Warren pre-debates was polling around 12-14% and is currently polling around 15-17%). Due to this estimate there won't be a massive shift in support, but I think that she will receive a boost of 3% across the board. In National, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls she will gain at the expense of Biden, Harris, and Sanders, all of whom I predict will suffer in this debate. Biden and Warren will stay fairly neck and neck for the remainder of the Summer - Biden ahead by 8 points Nationally with 27% support, 3-4 points ahead with 21% support in Iowa, and 21% in NH. Warren won't surpass Biden until their debate in September - the first time they both will be on stage. That will make for some fireworks - Warren has been an antagonist of Biden long before she became a Senator and national figure. Biden, as the Wall Street-loving Delaware corporate enabler, represents everything Warren has spent her life fighting against. He'll be an appetizer before she eviscerates Trump.