Special elections are a unique phenomenon for political forecasters. On one hand, they represent a helpful measure of national politics in a year that otherwise wouldn't have any statistically significant events to provide insights. On the other, special elections are, by definition: special - and typically come about due to factors that are quite removed from national politics. In the case of North Carolina, the 2019 Special Election in the 9th congressional district was the result of widespread corruption allegations against Rep. Mark Harris, whose own son testified in court about the campaign manager's attempts to rig the election in favor of his father. Even with the Republican's illegal actions, the Democratic candidate, Dan McCready, still came within 900 votes of winning the election. A new special election was called by the State Supreme Court, and despite initially trying to run again, Harris instead stepped down to try and ensure that the party's eventual candidate wouldn't be tarnished with his crimes.

North Carolina's 9th congressional district fits the profile of many other Democratic victories in 2018. It's rooted in Fayetteville, a rural mid-size city, but contains many of the Southern Charlotte suburbs that have seen rapid population growth by minorities, immigrants, and millennials. Despite voting for President Trump by more than 12% points in 2016, McCready was less than 0.4% away from winning the initial bout between himself and Harris. The state has recently been ravaged by Hurricane Dorian, where Trump's attempts to redefine meteorological predictions of the storm's path were met with widespread ridicule. In addition, Trump is the subject of much ill-will in the region because of his diversion of hurricane repair funds, Fort Bragg base funds, and education funds away from the state to help build his wall on the southern border. Because of these factors, NC09 is ripe for an upset.

Democratic candidate Dan McCready is a former veteran who is running as a moderate liberal. He made headlines for disparaging several Democratic presidential candidates' plans, returning a campaign contribution by Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar in response to her perceived, controversial anti-Semitic comments, and openly stating in 2018 that he would not vote for Nancy Pelosi as the Speaker of the House if he was elected. He is well-educated, having gone to both Duke University and Harvard, and found his success by opening a solar energy firm after leaving the military.

Republican candidate Dan Bishop is a generic conservative who has tried to heavily tie himself to Trump's brand. He is best known as the GOP state senator who attempted to pass the infamous North Carolina 'Bathroom Bill' that led to many national brands removing their presence in the state and likely enabling Attorney General Roy Cooper to wrest the governor's mansion from Governor Pat McCrory in 2016, an otherwise Republican wave year. His fundraising has been lackluster compared to McCready, who has received the support of many out-of-state national donors in the lead-up to the special election.

The polls are conflicted at this stage, but clearly indicate McCready's advantage. His own internal polls have him winning by a large margin, while Bishop's show him above McCready. A bipartisan poll conducted by Inside Elections shows McCready up by 4%, a 3-point improvement since his race against Harris in 2018. For historical comparisons, another special election that was judged to be the bellwether of 2018 was Georgia's 6th Congressional District Race in 2017 between Karen Handel and Jon Ossoff. Polls the week before the election largely showed Ossoff ahead by around 3%, despite Handel going on to win the election (she would later lose against current Georgia Rep. Lucy McBath in 2018). As I go into predictions and meaning, remember that special elections are weird events in American politics and often can't tell us all that much about the future. They have their own special rules and attributions and most observers after the Republican victories in the 2017 Georgia special elections in Montana and Georgia would have told you that the Republicans were in a great position going into 2018. Obviously this was incorrect.

Will Trump's presence make a difference in the election? It's hard to say. he Republican brand is a bit stretched in North Carolina's suburbs at the moment, especially with Trump's recent attempts at amateur meteorology and using military funds for his own vanity projects. Both are issues that matter to North Carolinians, and his support in the state was already declining. However, his star power cannot be underestimated, and his presence in campaign events - unheard of by a president who's uncertain of his candidates' victory - has been shown to encourage undecided voters to come to the polls.

If McCready wins, it means that the Republicans are trouble coming into 2020. Like the early battle for Georgia's 6th Congressional District in 2017 between Handel and Ossoff, many are looking at the result from this race as an indicator that Trump's appeal may actually hurt candidates. If McCready wins, especially given how much Trump has attempted to make the race a referendum on his own policies and remarks - which have disproportionately affected North Carolina in the past few weeks, it means that Trump's appeal is limited to a non-majority base. A Democratic Victory in the 9th would likely signify that the Democrats will continue to control the House and may even increase their majority in 2020. If McCready wins by more than 8-12% (in a district Trump won by 12%), that will be a nightmare scenario for the Republicans. It will mean that both the Republican brand and Trump are truly toxic in the American suburbs and will force conservative strategists to completely realign their plans and priorities for 2020.

There's a theory going around that the Democrats' flip of the House in 2018 calmed enough liberal voters that their sense of activism and willingness to vote has declined in 2019. A Republican victory in this district - especially considering all of McCready's advantages (fundraising advantage, name recognition, opposing party dogged by corruption, national displeasure with Trump, etc.), would lend credence to the theory that Democratic voters and independents are tired of the constant campaigning and simply want to live life as is. A Republican Victory in the 9th would mean that the Republicans have a slightly larger chance of reclaiming the House in 2020 - a Hail Mary, because the signs from Texas weren't looking good. If Bishop wins by more than 8-12%, it will mean that the district's political affiliation was truly unaffected by Trump's rhetoric and a former Republican's corruption, and spells trouble for the Democrats coming into 2020.

What do I predict? I think McCready will win - his district is along the lines of the other 2018 Democratic victories in the suburbs of red states' largest cities and his appeal matches previous victories in North Carolina for Democrats. I think it's going to be pretty hard for voters in the 9th to support a Republican after such egregious corruption allegations being proven, and McCready had a substantial lead in fundraising and name recognition beforehand. I worry what a Bishop win would mean for the United States, as his victory would be almost entirely due to Trump's appeal. It would mean that politics are truly inelastic and have devolved into pure support for a party over a single candidates' actual policy choices. What will be important is the percentages that McCready or Bishop win by. The margin of victory will be the most helpful indicator into looking at the future's prospects.