There's only a limited number of Democratic voters in Montana - at least as far as the data shows. Montana went for Trump by 26 points in the 2016 General Election. However, the data misses several key points about the state. Montana's only sent three Republican Senators to Washington since the 70s. Sen. John Tester (D) has represented the state since 2006, weathering a Republican wave year in 2012 and still being reelected in 2018 despite evidence that voters in modern Senate races elect purely based on partisanship rather than individual merit. Gov. Steve Bullock (D) became governor and won reelection the same year Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the state handily. Montana is its own political beast, largely because of the high number of independent-centrist voters that find passion behind both conservative and liberal causes. The question for 2020 - can a relatively liberal, Black, former refugee Democrat win in a state with such an established Republican presidential voting record and a population that is more than 90% white?

Helena Mayor Wilmot Collins was an Independent prior to 2019, largely fitting in the mold with most pundit descriptions of Montana (most Mayors of U.S. cities are officially independents regardless of party preferences). He became Mayor of Helena after winning 51% of the vote against a four-term incumbent, drawing on his two decades of military experience in the U.S. Navy Reserve and experience fleeing Liberia after their first Civil War. Since his historic win in 2018, he's since taken the national stage, appearing on the Daily Show and being featured twice in the Intercept. He's spoken out publicly against the Montana Republican incumbent's rhetoric and fervent embrace of the Trump Administration's hostile rhetoric towards refugees and POCs while maintaining that his bid for Senate will remain free of partisanship. He will likely make immigration central to his campaign - notable as Montana has only recently started to accept refugees. His unique bid is interesting, but can his narrative beat out his competitors for the chance to take on the Republicans?

Local businessman and veteran John Mues has recently announced he would also run in the Democratic primary taking place in late June. His lack of elected office isn't a particular roadblock to his Senate ambitions - neither current statewide Rep. Gianforte nor his 2017 challenger Quist held elected office beforehand, but it will make it difficult. All of Montana's current high-rank statewide positions are held by individuals who previous held elected office. It is unlikely that Mues would prevail over Collins. The real unknown is whether or not Gov. Steve Bullock will end his campaign to become the 2020 Democratic Nominee for President if he lags in the polls and returns to Montana to run for Senate before the filing deadline. If Bullock returns, it would immediately crush Collins' chances. Bullock is the face of a massive Montana-based fundraising machine, and his statewide recognition and appeal would clear the race. Previous Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer is also considering a bid, who would present an additional formidable challenge to Collins. Schweitzer has been out of politics for nearly a decade, which has been proven to hurt politicians trying to come out of retirement to run for office. Bullock remains the only real threat - and he's reportedly advising his fundraising partners to avoid Collins' campaign and solely focus on getting his Lt. Gov. elected to the Governor's mansion. This indicates that Bullock is trying to keep a backdoor to the Senate open if his presidential ambitions fade. Regardless of the eventual nominee - be it Collins or Bullock, what would a Montanan Democrat have to do to wrest the Senate seat from the Republicans?

Montana's elected an eclectic mix of politicians in the past couple of decades - from progressives, tea party Republicans, libertarian-Republicans, to moderate Democrats. A Democratic hopeful with progressive, populist leanings would need to target the main areas that Clinton performed well in 2016 to solidify their base. Their base: Missoula and Bozeman. Missoula is home to the University of Montana while Bozeman is the location of Montana State University. This is the liberal center of the state and home to 25% or so of potential voters. Old mining towns like Butte and Havre are probably the next best bet - they went for Clinton with 48% of the vote and Bullock with a whopping 67%, Tester with 55%. Collins' advantage? Helena, with its status as the largest swing county in Montana. It has a large state government workforce and tends to lean Democratic, not to mention that it holds 15% of the population. Helena voters wanted Collins as their mayor, so what's to say they won't go for him for Senate? That total gives Collins a shaky 45% of the vote, with his odds in the mining villages and Helena uncertain. His biggest weaknesses are the open counties of Billings and Kalispell at either end of the state - they have a few suburbanites that might be persuaded to vote Democratic, but have often gone for Republicans in statewide elections, as well as rural Montana. Rural Montana is pretty heavily Republican, though there are several Native American tribes like the Blackfeet Nation and Crow Nation that vote Democratic and they have a history of supporting candidates they personally know. Collins' coalition is urban - focusing on maximizing turnout from educated professionals while making inroads to rural areas and voters that might otherwise not vote. Montana makes this simple - it's a small state, population-wise, and voters reward candidates who make an attempt to get to know them.

Early indicators that Collins is doing well will be large fundraising hauls in the 3rd and 4th quarters, Bullock continuing to plow into the Democratic field until he's thrown out (and missing the filing deadline), and Trump further polarizing the race against his party. Until the preliminary opinion polls come out of Montana voters, there's no way to know how he'll fare against Sen. Daines. Past statewide elections in Montana seem to suggest that a Democrat can win if they stick to a moderate platform, raise enough money to campaign everywhere in the state, are recognizable and familiar to Montanans, and don't try and make the campaign about national issues. In the age of Trump, this might not be enough to tear the state away from its partisan lean - but Collins unique appeal (not to mention that he can never run for President) might be a perfect counterbalance/contrast to the President.

Will Collins be the nominee and go on to win the election? Only time will tell for now - it's a bit too far out to begin making concrete estimates, especially with Bullock being a potential upset. Montana seems to be bucking the national trend of voting solely through partisan lens - if only because they didn't have too many partisans to begin with. One thing's for sure - we'll be waiting for the results till the last minute of November 3rd: Montana takes forever to count their ballots.